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                  人民幣匯率破7,外貿企業如何規避匯率波動帶來的風險?

                  2019-08-07 14:45:48

                  01人民幣匯率破7


                  8月5日上午9時16分左右,離岸人民幣兌美元匯率跌破“7”關口,隨后,在岸人民幣兌美元也跌破7元。人民幣兌美元中間價報6.9225,下調229點,中間價貶值至2018年12月3日以來最低。最高點出現在2014年,匯率是6.0408,波幅接近1。

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                  今年5月,各大機構也紛紛更新了對人民幣匯率走勢的預測,供外貿人參考:


                  星展集團研究部預估,在美國將2000億美元的中國商品關稅從10%上調至25%的情況下,美元兌人民幣將升至7.3。如果美國對所有中國商品都征收25%的關稅,美元兌人民幣可能升至接近8的水準,人民幣貶值同時也會對新興亞洲貨幣帶來負面影響。 


                  瑞銀首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,若中美貿易戰全面爆發,人民幣對美元匯率更可能貶至7.2。 


                  摩根士丹利將第三季度人民幣匯率預測從6.57元下調至6.72元,但預計人民幣不會保持疲軟;第四季度估計在6.60,之前預估在6.55。


                  高盛將3個月后美元/人民幣的預測從6.65修正為6.95;不過維持未來9個月和12個月的預測在6.65和6.60不變。


                  平安證券預測,在2019年后三個季度,人民幣兌美元匯率可能呈現先小幅貶值后趨于穩定的局面,大致的波動范圍或在6.6-7.0左右。2019年人民幣兌美元匯率破7的概率依然很低。


                  興業研究魯政委表示,國內基本面保持韌性,本輪市場情緒受消息面影響的程度弱于2018年6月,美元兌人民幣上行的速率相對可控。


                  中國金融期貨交易所研究院首席經濟學家趙慶明認為,在當前兩大國經貿磋商遇挫的情況下,人民幣匯率會走弱,不排除再次走低至6.97附近,但是不會輕易跌破7的整數關口,不過需要注意的是,從歷史經驗來看匯率走弱會伴隨股市走弱,新興市場國家容易發生“股匯雙殺”行情。(有新興市場國家客戶的朋友們需要注意了!)


                  招商銀行首席外匯分析師李劉陽在5月13日的報告中指出,短期內摩擦有進一步加劇的風險,美方可能會進一步施加各種壓力,市場情緒將會受到一定的負面影響。下調二季度末美元兌人民幣匯率預期至6.90(上周預測為6.8),但維持中長線人民幣匯率均衡水平在6.50的預測不變。


                  李劉陽給外貿企業的建議是:企業應根據自己的實際需求結匯、購匯,在控制風險敞口的原則下專注主業,切勿患得患失、賭匯率方向。不要被市場預期所左右,那樣無異于和市場對賭,勝算不高。


                  建信金融資產投資有限公司研究主管韓會師的意見也類似:企業財務主管的第一任務是確保企業財務狀況的穩健,不是讓財務部門成為利潤中心,特別是不能成為匯率賭博的中心。如果企業能夠盈利,任何時候都是好的結匯時機,別在意是否還有更好的價位。更好的價位出現時,也別被一時的好運氣沖昏了頭腦,及時抓住它,別總奢望再攀高峰。



                  02如何影響錢袋子?

                  1.留學生。留學生的生活費、學雜費付出的成本都會相應增加。有子女正在留學,特別是在美國留學,但沒有換足夠外匯的家庭,可能要多花一筆錢。


                  2.海淘族。購買外國的商品,折合成人民幣會比以前貴。

                  3.出國旅游的人。到了國外,交通、酒店住宿等花銷都會變多,而在境外購買化妝品、名包、名表的人,也不得不多掏腰包了。旅行社也可能提高境外游的報價,尤其是去往美國的線路。

                  4.航空公司。人民幣貶值是航空公司最不愿意看到的事情。航空公司屬于高舉債型企業,而且負債多數是購買和租賃飛機等形成的外幣債務,每年需支付一定數量的利息費用和本金。

                  5.貶值對出口型企業,尤其是小型制造業有一定好處。分行業來看,A股市場以外貿出口為導向的行業無疑將受益,而其中的紡織服裝、玩具鞋帽等企業將是最大受益者。紡織服裝行業由于對出口的依存度較高,人民幣貶值一方面有利于公司降低成本,提高產品競爭力,企業將拿到更多訂單;另一方面,有利于出口型企業獲得匯兌收益。而人民幣貶值意味著外國貨幣購買力增強,這將進一步刺激消費,有利于出口。


                  03外貿企業如何規避風險

                  1.將匯率風險納入成本控制

                  由于一定的周期內匯率的波動還是有一定的范圍的,一般在3%-5%之間,報價時就把這個區間考慮進去。同時也可以和客戶約定如果超出這個比例,那么風險共擔,由買賣雙方共同承擔因匯率波動而帶來的利潤損失。或者約定報價有效期,比如將原來1-3個月報一次價格縮減到了10-15天,甚至每天按照匯率波動更新報價單。

                  此外,也可以采取同一種產品根據不同付款方式提供不同報價的方式,如信用證付款是一個價格,50%預付是一個價格,100%預付又是另外一個價格,讓買家自己選擇。


                  2.貿易融資

                  貿易融資是目前企業采用最多的避險方式。主要原因包括:

                  一是貿易融資可以較好地解決外貿企業資金周轉問題。隨著我國外貿出口的快速增長,出口企業競爭日益激烈,收匯期延長,企業急需解決出口發貨與收匯期之間的現金流通問題。通過出口押匯等短期貿易融資方式,出口企業可事先從銀行獲得資金,有效解決資金周轉問題。同時,企業也可以提前鎖定收匯金額,規避人民幣匯率變動風險;


                  二是貿易融資成本相對較低。在貿易融資方式構成中,進出口押匯使用比重較高(約為80%),原因主要是出口押匯期限較短(一般在1年以內),可以較好地緩解外貿企業的流動資金短缺問題。另外,一些企業還使用福費廷等期限較長的貿易融資方式。


                  3.使用金融衍生產品

                  匯改后,我國外匯市場發展加快,完善和擴大了人民幣遠期交易的主體和范圍,推出了外匯掉期等金融衍生產品。同時在外匯管理等方面采取了一系列配套措施,為企業拓寬了匯率的金融避險渠道。

                  企業使用金融衍生產品的主要特點如下:

                  一是使用遠期結售匯工具較多。匯改后,遠期結售匯業務范圍和交易主體擴大,銀行間人民幣匯率遠期交易推出,商業銀行擴大對企業匯率避險服務,在較大程度上方便了企業遠期結售匯交易,進一步滿足了企業的避險需求。調查顯示,遠期結售匯工具的使用在金融衍生工具中占比高達91%。


                  二是部分企業運用外匯掉期和境外人民幣無本金交割遠期(NDF)工具。自匯改后推出外匯掉期業務以來,福建、廣東、江蘇、山東和天津等省市的部分企業已開始嘗試使用這一新的金融衍生工具。盡管業務量占比相對較小,但發展勢頭良好。一些外資企業和在國外有分支機構或合作伙伴的中資企業還通過境外人民幣NDF工具進行匯率避險。


                  4.使用人民幣計價結算

                  2015年,人民幣“入籃”標志著中國從經濟大國、貿易大國邁向貨幣大國。對此,國際社會反響積極,人民幣資產在全球市場的吸引力明顯上升。僅2016年9月和10月,通過人民銀行代理配置的人民幣資產規模就已超過百億美元。許多國際金融組織和多邊開發機構的貸款及不少國家的負債均以SDR計價,其配置的人民幣資產也在穩步增長。此外,隨著人民幣資產吸引力增強,國內外主動配置人民幣資產的需求也明顯上升。


                  用人民幣計價結算可以起到與匯率風險基本隔絕的效果,企業要及時了解有關改革和政策的動向,在政策允許范圍內考慮使用人民幣。


                  5. 進出口對沖

                  對于進出口公司既可以從事出口業務也可以從事進口業務,那么就可以利用自己既是買者又是賣者的身份來平衡匯率波動造成的價格差異。因為當匯率下跌時,導致出口收匯縮水,同時進口業務支付的實際金額也相應減少,這樣一增一減也就使得本公司內的財務指標達到了平衡。


                  6.增強匯率風險管理技能

                  最后,建議大家養成一個習慣,在每天上班和下班前瀏覽當天匯率的變動(可查看中國銀行的現匯買入價),隨時整理出新的對外價格表。另外也可以關注一些時政新聞、國際貿易新聞,從而對趨勢有一定的把握。 


                  企業可以培養和引進懂專業、懂技術、懂工具的財務人員,加大有關信息的投入,使之能夠在外部咨詢的基礎上對匯率做出獨立的判斷,能夠識別風險點并運用有關工具管理風險。如果一家企業無法承擔這項開支的話,可以由多家企業聯合共同完成這項工作,同時也資源共享。當然也可以訂制商業銀行的專門服務,由銀行的研究團隊提供專業參考意見。







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